John Markoff, a retired Pulitzer Prize-winning technology writer at the New York Times, best-selling author, and now Fellow at Stanford Medical School's Presence Center, witnessed the evolution of Silicon Valley and the impact of emerging technologies firsthand. Growing up in Palo Alto, Markoff returned to the region in 1977, just as the microprocessor revolution took hold. Throughout his career, he has explored the transformative power of technology and the potential challenges it poses.
John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School.
I recently sat down to chat with Markoff about future of work trends as part of my research to produce Season 1 of The Lever with Drew Fortin. This show highlights how the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and Web3 will shift the paradigm of humans at work for the better. I wrote this article based on my notes and transcripts from the interview. You can also watch a video of my interview with John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School, below.
One pivotal moment in Markoff's journey came while reporting on Apple's shift to a Chinese labor force. He had initially believed that automation in China would lead to widespread job displacement. However, a conversation with Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman challenged his perspective. It revealed that China, facing an aging workforce, actually needed robots to assist with care for the elderly. This insight reframed Markoff's view of automation, highlighting the importance of robotics in addressing societal needs.
"I was a complete believer in the idea that automation was going to come to China and it was going to lead to massive dislocation of the workforce and perhaps revolution because people were out of jobs. And I was making that case to Danny Kahneman. And he stopped, and he said, you've got it all wrong. He said, in China, they'll be lucky if the robots come just in time." - John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School
Markoff's experience also sheds light on the limitations of current robotics technology. Despite significant progress, consumer robots are still lacking beyond the popular Roomba vacuum cleaner. The anticipated impact of automation has been somewhat muted, with productivity statistics reflecting historically low levels. This discrepancy has puzzled economists and raised questions about the pace of technological advancement.
The aging population is a global phenomenon, and the need for robotics to support care services is growing. Much work remains, from safely giving showers to aging individuals to assisting in various daily tasks. Mentioned as a prophet, Markoff's journey has underscored the importance of continued innovation in the robotics field to meet these pressing societal needs.
In his book, "Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots," Markoff explores the complicated relationship between humans and technology, specifically in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. Markoff's research sheds light on early debates surrounding AI at Stanford University, where two distinct laboratories were established in 1962 with different visions for the future of computing.
On one side, the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, led by John McCarthy, aimed to replace humans with machines by developing AI. Conversely, Doug Engelbart advocated for intelligence augmentation at the Stanford Research Institute (SRI), using computers to extend human intelligence. This dichotomy between designing humans out or into the equation has been central to discussions about the impact of automation and AI.
"The thing I worry about most is, will we use these things to dumb down the human species, or will we use this technology to make the human species more intelligent?" - John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School
Markoff emphasized that the decisions about how technology is designed and implemented ultimately fall to engineers, shareholders, CEOs, designers, and consumers. He raised concerns about whether the emergence of chatbots and other AI technologies will contribute to the dumbing down or enhancing human intelligence. Markoff also reflected on the ethical considerations surrounding AI, noting that while there was intense debate about its implications for humanity, the focus shifted towards profit-making opportunities, potentially neglecting the broader consequences.
Despite some disappointments in Silicon Valley's recent prioritization of financial gain over ethical considerations, Markoff acknowledges the ongoing debate and the need for careful decision-making as AI technology advances.
Markoff discussed the profound impact of remote work on the workplace and the slower-than-expected evolution of technology during this transition. Markoff, who has worked in downtown San Francisco for over two decades, expressed his sadness about transforming once-thriving areas into ghost towns due to shifting work habits and expectations.
While acknowledging the effectiveness of platforms like Zoom in facilitating communication, Markoff highlighted their limitations and expressed disappointment at the slow progress in augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality technologies. Despite investments from major tech companies like Facebook and Apple, these technologies have yet to transform the workplace as significantly as anticipated.
Markoff believes that as people start to long for human contact and face-to-face interactions, there will be general acceptance of hybrid work. The absence of physical presence in traditional workplaces, such as the New York Times newsroom, has altered the dynamics and vibrancy of these spaces. Markoff predicts a rebalancing in the future, but the exact nature of this transition remains uncertain.
"Small face-to-face interactions are the best things of society...I think people are missing human contact, and as soon as they can actually get back in contact, there will be some kind of a hybrid form of office." - John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School
Regarding advancements in AI, Markoff was skeptical of whether chatbots can effectively ask questions during interviews - a crucial and uniquely human aspect of journalism. While machines have proven capable of structured writing, the ability to conduct insightful interviews remains uncharted territory.
Markoff emphasized the need for technology to catch up with the changing landscape as the workplace evolves.
Markoff contemplated the changing landscape of work and the role of humans in managing and adapting to new technologies. Markoff expressed skepticism about the notion that jobs have been disappearing due to automation, citing census data from a few years ago that revealed very few job categories had actually vanished. While work has certainly transformed, he pointed out that it has not changed as drastically as anticipated.
Markoff highlighted the disappearance of roles like elevator operators and suggested that jobs such as lumpers (manual laborers) could be eliminated without significantly impacting society. However, he also noted that creative jobs, traditionally believed to be secure from automation, are now being reevaluated. Some tasks previously considered creative may be more easily accomplished by machines. This raises questions about how future jobs should be designed, and Markoff sees this as a distinctly human decision.
"The assumption was that creative jobs were somehow secure. And then you rethink those things, and you realize that a lot of the things that we think about as creativity perhaps were not as creative as we assumed they were." - John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School
One example Markoff discussed was the call center operator role. He acknowledged that businesses could choose between employing fewer, more skilled human operators supported by technology or completely replacing them with automated systems. Ultimately, the decision may be driven by factors like business margins and profitability rather than solely by engineers' intentions. Markoff views the fate of call center jobs as a telling indicator of the broader impact of automation on workers.
Markoff also touched on the potential transformation of the healthcare industry. He envisioned systems that could triage patients and direct them to automated processes or doctors as needed, potentially improving medical care. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of telehealth, and Markoff predicts that virtual doctor visits will become the norm due to their convenience and efficiency.
As technology advances, Markoff emphasized the importance of carefully considering how to redesign different professions. While he acknowledged that the answers to these questions are still uncertain, he believes they will gradually unfold over the next few years.
In his observations of the evolving workplace, Markoff highlighted how the traditional notion of long-term employment with a single company has faded, even within renowned institutions like The New York Times. Instead, he noted the prevalence of professionals passing through organizations on their way to new opportunities, a trend that would have been unimaginable in his generation.
Markoff delved further into the transition from employee to independent contractor, remarking on the numerous reasons why corporations are increasingly opting for this arrangement. These motives range from greater flexibility to profit-driven pressures. Additionally, Markoff recognized that technological advancements have significantly facilitated this shift towards independent contractor arrangements.
While the rise of independent contractors is driven by profit-oriented decision-making, Markoff acknowledged opposing forces at work. He pointed to the recent surge in union chatter, a counterbalance to the changing landscape. However, without comprehensive reporting on the ground, Markoff refrained from making definitive predictions about how these dynamics will ultimately play out.
Markoff also shared an intriguing conversation he had with AI pioneer Terry Winograd in 2006. They discussed the ethical considerations of technology within the capitalist system, where decisions are predominantly guided by profitability. Markoff emphasized the reality that companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google prioritize optimizing profits, even amidst ongoing discussions on AI ethics.
Having witnessed multiple boom and bust cycles in Silicon Valley since the late 1960s, Markoff notes the contradictory aspects of the current tech industry landscape. Despite widespread layoffs and economic uncertainties, key indicators like low unemployment rates and continued housing development challenge the perception of a downturn in Silicon Valley.
As these changes unfold, Markoff suggests that crucial questions regarding the impact of technology on the workplace remain on the table. The increasing prevalence of independent contractors and the influence of profit-driven decision-making indicate that the answers to these questions will continue to shape the future of work.
To close our conversation, we looked further ahead to a future impacted by Web3. Markoff, who claims he initially coined the term "Web 3.0" in 2006, clarifies that his original intention was to refer to the semantic web rather than the crypto web that has gained prominence in recent years. While the crypto community repurposed the term, Markoff didn't seem to hold any significant grudge about it.
Having written the first article on the blockchain, Markoff noted its origins in the 1990s. Originally, it aimed to provide proof of invention in a digital laboratory book setting. However, the blockchain's inclusion in cryptocurrency architecture propelled its expansion beyond its initial purpose.
Despite this, Markoff remains skeptical about the value of a distributed web beyond cryptocurrencies. He highlighted a fundamental disagreement with the goals of the Web3 community, which strives to create a trustless world. Markoff firmly believes trust is a vital human value that should not be undermined. He thinks smart contracts are inevitable, but we have to make them secure. And he noted his favorite website at the moment is a website run by a crypto-journalist called web3isgoinggreat.com, which is a running account of the scams and frauds in this supposedly secure crypto world.
Shifting gears, Markoff delved into the evolution of chatbot technology. He points to Apple's 1987 vision video, "Knowledge Navigator," as a prescient articulation of the desired intelligent assistant. Markoff's acquaintance with Siri's designers, Adam Cheyer and Tom Gruber reveals their motivation to build Siri as a realization of the Knowledge Navigator vision.
While progress has been made, Markoff acknowledged that true understanding and interaction between humans and intelligent assistants remain works in progress. He draws attention to the film "Her" as an example of the ongoing quest for meaningful relationships with machines. Markoff highlighted the potential of designing intelligent systems for elder care to combat societal issues like dementia and isolation among aging individuals.
Markoff ended our time together, expressing optimism about leveraging technology to create positive and meaningful connections. When handled responsibly, the tools are now available to design systems that enhance human life.
"I wonder whether you can build this technology in a way that you can weave people together in powerful ways that will give their life meaning. And that's a design question. And I think the tools are there now to start designing those systems. And it will be wonderful to see if they're used in a positive way." - John Markoff, retired Pulitzer Prize-winning tech journalist, best-selling author, and Fellow at Stanford Medical School