The Most Predictable Hiring Practices

Every organization wants to create more predictable hiring results, as bad hires and underperformance can be extremely costly to businesses. To create a more predictable hiring process, organizations should understand what hiring practices correlate with job performance. There is a big difference between using job assessments like cognitive ability vs. resumes in their predicting of hiring success.

In the context of assessing job performance, validity refers to how accurately a method predicts future job success. A higher validity indicates a stronger correlation between the assessment results and actual job performance. For example, if a cognitive ability test has high validity, it means that individuals who score well on the test are more likely to be successful in the job.

In Section 1, you will find a list of the top hiring practices and their respective validity in predicting job performance. Additionally, in Section 2, we cover what validity studies are and how they are conducted.

1. What Hiring Practices Best Predict Job Performance From Worst to Best?

Here's a list of hiring practices prioritized by their ability to predict on-the-job success (aka validity), according to scientific research and studies:

1. 1. Cog + Behavior + Structured Interviews (79% validity)
   2. Cog + Behavior (55%) Cog + structured interview (55%)

1. Cognitive Ability Tests (51% Validity)

Cognitive ability tests measure general mental abilities such as problem-solving, reasoning, and learning speed. They are consistently found to be one of the best predictors of job performance across a wide range of occupations. The reason for this is scoring higher in cognitive ability tests correlates well with what leads to success based on certain job responsibilities.

• 65% Validity: The value of .65 in Table 1 for the validity of GMA is the average of eight meta-analytic estimates as presented in Schmidt et al. (2008). Based on the data from a large meta-analytic study conducted for the U.S. Department of Labor (Hunter, 1980; Hunter & Hunter, 1984), Hunter et al. (2006), after applying the new range correction procedure, PDF
• Hunter, J. E., & Hunter, R. F. (1984). Validity and utility of alternative predictors of job performance. Psychological Bulletin, 96(1), 72-98. Tables

2. Structured Interviews (51% Validity)

Structured interviews involve a predetermined set of questions asked of all candidates, which are then scored using a standardized system. This method is considered one of the most valid and reliable predictors of job performance. Unstructured interviews are open. (Source)

Unstructured interviews are open, free-flowing conversations with candidates. Unlike structured interviews, there's no predetermined set of questions, and the discussion can go in various directions based on the candidate's responses and the interviewer's line of questioning. (Source)

Schmidt, F. L., & Hunter, J. E. (1998). The validity and utility of selection methods in personnel psychology: Practical and theoretical implications of 85 years of research findings. Psychological Bulletin, 124(2), 262-274. PDF

4. Personality and Job Assessments (37% Validity)

These tests assess personality traits that are relevant to job performance, such as conscientiousness, agreeableness, and extraversion. While not as strong a predictor as cognitive ability, personality can be a useful tool in understanding how a candidate might fit within a team or company culture. (Source)

• Barrick, M. R., & Mount, M. K. (1991). The Big Five personality dimensions and job performance: A meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology, 44(1), 1-26. PDF
• Predictive Index Science Background

5. Work Sample Tests (26% Validity)

These tests require candidates to perform tasks that are directly related to the job they are applying for. They provide a realistic preview of a candidate's abilities and are strong predictors of future performance. (Source)

• McDaniel, M. A., Whetzel, D. L., Schmidt, F. L., & Maurer, S. D. (1994). The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 79(4), 599-616.

6. Reference Checks (25% Validity)

While often overlooked, reference checks can provide valuable insights into a candidate's past behavior and performance. Structured reference checks, which focus on specific job-related competencies, can be particularly useful. (Source)

• Campion, M. A., Palmer, D. K., & Campion, J. E. (1997). A review of structure in the selection interview. Personnel Psychology, 50(3), 655-702.

7. Resume (16% Validity)

Assuming the resume and notable biographical accomplishments listed are valid. (Source)

It's important to note that the best hiring practices may vary depending on the specific job and industry. A combination of these methods is often recommended for a comprehensive assessment of candidates.

2. Harnessing Data to Scientifically Predict Job Performance is Vital

Even if you were to follow the advice above, you are playing with averages at best. Those practices are proven to work. However, it doesn’t mean they will work in the same way for you. The use of those hiring practices does not consider your culture, work arrangements, or business performance. This is why it’s important to understand how impactful these practices and other data are in predicting performance. 

Conducting validity studies allows organizations to leverage employee assessments and performance data to uncover correlations between human traits, abilities, and on-the-job success. This process involves comparing assessment results with actual performance metrics to evaluate how effectively these assessments predict success in specific roles.

What is a Validity Study?

A Validity Study is a report that provides insight into what hiring practices predict job performance. Validity studies are essential for enhancing hiring and development strategies, as they use statistically significant data to provide insight. By identifying traits and abilities that correlate strongly with high performance, organizations can refine their selection processes to ensure they hire individuals with the right qualities. Moreover, these studies enable businesses to customize their training and development programs to address specific needs, maximizing employee potential and boosting overall organizational productivity.

How are they conducted?

Typical validity studies follow a systematic approach. Researchers start by defining the construct they aim to measure and then develop or select suitable assessment tools. These tools are administered to a representative sample to gather data. The next step involves analyzing the results to determine how accurately the tools measure the intended constructs. This often includes employing statistical techniques, such as correlation analysis, to establish relationships between assessment outcomes and established performance criteria. Finally, the findings are reviewed and reported to evaluate the overall validity of the measurement instruments utilized.

Let Your Data Work For You

Harnessing your data is no longer a luxury for big businesses, and these days, it is vital for business growth. This data-driven approach can help you save on the financial and productivity costs that come with mishires. To learn more about how validity studies can assist you, check out my full interview with Tyler Marcus here.

This article is part of a larger profile on Gradmor. Check out my interview with Tyler Marcus and the other articles here.